East Coast VIC Surf Forecasts

2

Warning

Victoria Flood Warning Summary

Ben Macartney

Ben Macartney's Regional Outlook

Updated 16 Aug 2019 @ 3:35 PM (local)
info

The surf heights forecasted for East Coast VIC

Please consider your local spots specific orientation to the coast and any local idiosyncrasies that may also effect the swell in relation to this regional forecast.

  • Swell analysis

    Summary
    The exposed beaches are looking well worth your time on Saturday. A slow easing SW swell coincides with light NNE to NE winds; opening up a full day of pretty ideal conditions across a wide range of exposed Victorian coastline. This should see clean 2 to 4ft sets across the Mornington early, gradually easing throughout the day. However, come Sunday, the exposed beaches will progressively become overwhelmed under the combined influence of a rising SW/WSW swell and strengthening NW to WNW winds – both of which should see the focus shifting to the Surf Coast all afternoon.

    That marks the beginning of an extended run of large surf enduring across the state throughout the course of the working week. In the first instance this follows the development of a vigorous frontal low beneath South Australia, that’s linked to a deep polar low setting up below the mainland over the weekend. This complex system carries a broad, 30kt SW fetch into our short-range swell window on Sunday; triggering a strong rise in mid-period SW swell across the state on Monday. A trailing frontal progression moving below SA on Monday then reinvigorates a close range WSW fetch west of Bass Strait; triggering the onset of a reinforcing WSW swell on Tuesday. The summation of this activity is large/ heavy surf statewide on Tuesday, with latest model guidance pointing to 8 to 10ft conditions across exposed beaches, wrapping at 6 to 8ft plus across the premier Surf Coast reefs.

     

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