BALI, INDONESIA SURF FORECAST: April 24 - May 7, 2012

23 Apr 2013 0 Share

Coastalwatch’s Weekly Indo Surf Forecast Covering Bali, Java, Lombok and Sumbawa

Forecast Issued 23rd of April, 2013 by Ben Macartney

A highly active early season swell window generates a series of long period SSW groundswell’s across the Archipelago this week.

It's shaping up as an epic week of waves across the Archipelago. Image: Wilcoxen/Kandui Resort.

It's shaping up as an epic week of waves across the Archipelago. Image: Wilcoxen/Kandui Resort.

DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday 23
SSW groundswell around 2ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 15 knots

Thursday 24
New SSW groundswell 3 – 5ft early, building to 5 – 6ft+ exposed breaks during the morning. WIND: ESE 5 to 15 knots

Friday 25
SSW groundswell 4 – 5ft exposed breaks. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday 26
New SSW groundswell 5 - 6ft+ exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. WIND: ESE to ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday 27
New SSW groundswell 6 – 8ft exposed breaks. WIND: Early light and variable tending ENE to ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Monday 28
SSW groundswell 5 – 6ft exposed breaks, gradually easing. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots.


OVERVIEW

It’s a good time to be surfing in Indonesia. The arrival of a leading pulse of SSW groundswell on Tuesday marks the first in a series of overlapping groundswells arriving out of the 200 degree band, producing excellent conditions across the region all week. Tuesday’s initial SSW pulse levels off around the three to four foot mark across the exposed reefs on Wednesday, grading to lower levels elsewhere depending on exposure.

From Thursday onwards energy levels begin to muscle up with the arrival of a more substantial pulse of long period S groundswell filling in throughout the morning. The swell source is linked to a broad, complex area of low pressure currently active over the Southern Ocean, deep beneath the Archipelago. A first deep extratropical low linked to this system developed beneath the Kerguelen Islands last Friday. The low intensified as it traversed eastward across the far southern Indian Ocean last weekend, giving rise to maximum significant wave heights of 40 feet deep beneath Sumatera and Java.

The south groundswell arriving off this source should peak late Thursday and throughout Friday in the five to six foot range across exposed breaks. The swell is closely followed by a new, even stronger SSW groundswell arriving this weekend. It’s origin is another intense extratropical storm developing within the far western periphery of the broader low pressure complex occupying the south-eastern Indian Ocean;

Source: BOM. A broad low pressure complex occupying the south-eastern Indian Ocean delivers a series of back to back SSW groundswells to Indonesian shores this week.

Source: BOM. A broad low pressure complex occupying the south-eastern Indian Ocean delivers a series of back to back SSW groundswells to Indonesian shores this week.

Latest satellite passes picked up a gale to storm force W to SW fetch wrapping around the upper western flank of the storm on Tuesday and it’s expected to maintain these wind speeds as it continues to intensify and traverse further eastward overnight. The fetch goes to work upon an already highly active sea state prevailing as a result of the broader low pressure complex; facilitating renewed wave growth towards 40 feet plus over the Southern Ocean on Tuesday night.

The leading edge of this energy fills in throughout Saturday afternoon, possibly resulting in a strong increase late in the evening. However, the bulk of the swell should fill in overnight, generating larger six to eight foot plus surf across the exposed breaks throughout the day before gradually subsiding to lower levels throughout Monday.


LONGE RANGE

This weekend’s powerful SSW groundswell marks the height of this active phase in south groundswell ahead of a steep decline setting in early next week. This follows a further eastward migration of the aforementioned low pressure complex beneath Australia later this week, drawing the storm activity out of our swell window. In it’s wake we have a series of relatively weak frontal lows and polar lows pressure systems passing across the southern Indian Ocean on Thursday. This leans towards a drop in size to two to four feet across the region by Tuesday 30 April and an absence of any substantial new storm activity indicates wave heights will level off in the one to three foot max range throughout the first week of May.

The Wave Tracker picks up the heavy seas and swell generated by a large storm system currently developing over our south swell window. Swell generated by the low arrives across Indonesia this weekend.

The Wave Tracker picks up the heavy seas and swell generated by a large storm system currently developing over our south swell window. Swell generated by the low arrives across Indonesia this weekend.


Tags: swell forecast , Bali , Lombok (create Alert from these tags)

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