Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast: April 30 – May 14, 2013
Coastalwatch's Weekly Indo Surf Forecast Covering Bali, Java, Lombok and Sumbawa
Issued Tuesday, 30 April 2013 by Kathryn Jackson
After a good pulse of SW groundswell over the weekend, waves will slow down and fade as the Indian Ocean weakens swell production in the short term. Long range forecast shows larger distant long period southwest groundswells reignite surf heading into the middle of May.
DAILY SUMMARY
Wednesday, May 1
SW swell decreases 3-4ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 15 knots
Thursday, May 2
SW swell drops off further, inconsistent sets around 3ft exposed breaks. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots
Friday, May 3
Small SW swell lingers, minor sets up to 2ft along exposed breaks. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots.
Saturday, May 4
Midperiod S swell shows up 1-3ft on south exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light to variable ESE 5 to 10 knots.
Sunday, May 5
Midperiod S and WSW swell mix, 2–3ft exposed breaks, occasional 3-4ft sets at standouts. WIND: Light and variable ESE 5 to 10 knots.
Monday, May 6
Midperiod WSW swell 2–3ft+ on exposed breaks. WIND: Light and variable ESE 5 to 10 knots.
OVERVIEW
After a decent pulse of overhead waves that filled into a peak last Sunday, waves will be dropping down throughout the first week of May. Storm activity in the Indian Ocean has shifted into a pattern of only small scale mid-latitude lows for the time being. This scenario is resulting in only small range mid-period swells coming our way for the rest of this week and the upcoming weekend.
Over the short term, surf will continue to linger off of the last pulse of SW groundswell. That SW swell is on a downward journey today and leftover sets are decreasing but should maintain occasional 3ft waves along exposed areas Wednesday and early Thursday. However, expect the minimal surf by the week’s end and sets dropping down into the 1-2ft mark by Friday. With that, it will be best to take advantage of the remaining surf midweek before SW swell energy runs out.
For the weekend outlook, waves continue small range but here does seem to be two small swell sources from compact low pressure systems occurring in the mid-latitudes of the Indian Ocean. These smaller storms do not hold much strength, so neither look to offer much swell size. However, after a small run of waves, we may able to see a slight bump in short-range waves on the open breaks Saturday and Sunday.
The first swell source comes from a compact low off the southwest coast of WA. Small south swell from this storm would increase 2ft+ waves Saturday afternoon and continue into Sunday. Mixing into that, another mid-period swell would track from a slightly more westerly direction and offer a cross of slightly more 2-3ft+ waves through Sunday and Monday. Both these swell’s are mid-period and in the small scale range, leading to less deepwater wave energy and possibly short crossed-up wave shape.
Waves hold small scale this week. There is only a minor storm source off of WA at the moment showing on the synoptic chart.
LONG RANGE
The good news is, there is more storm activity on the distant horizon. Looking further out into the deep southwest Indian Ocean, there are new polar lows expected to set up new SW groundswell production heading into the weekend.
A strong low pressure is forecasted to track from the south of South Africa and deepen into a compact storm system the south-central Indian Ocean May 3rd. This scenario sets up a solid fetch for long range SW groundswell aimed our way. The great distance of the storm source will result in about 7days travel time, leading to the new SW groundswell arrival possibly around the 10th of May.
Even beyond that, the swell pattern continues to crank up as another large polar low pressure system is forecasted to form behind that initial storm and create another distant swell fetch around 5th May. Based on the projection of that swell’s travel time, waves could overlap another long period SW groundswell around the 14th-16 May. Stay tuned.
After a slow start to May, we could see an improvement of swell size heading into the middle of the month. This will be reviewed again next week.
Long range projections show new SW groundswell production to our deep southwest over the weekend. This should increase wave size through the middle of May after a slow start to the month.
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