Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast: 7 - 13 May, 2013

7 May 2013 0 Share

Coastalwatch's Weekly Indo Surf Forecast Covering Bali, Java, Lombok and Sumbawa

Issued Tuesday, 7 May 2013 by Kathryn Jackson

After a slow start to May, there is plenty of swell on the horizon for Indonesia. A series of S and SW groundswells will reignite large surf heading into the middle of May before returning to moderate levels at the end of the month.

DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday, 8 May 
Minor SW swell holds small-scale 2ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots

Thursday, 9 May
SW swell increasing through the day, inconsistent 3ft early with sets building 4-5ft through the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 10 knots

Friday, 10 May
New SW swell fills in, 4-6ft with occasional larger 6-8ft sets along standouts. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday, 11 May
SW swell continues to hold up, 4-5ft with occasional 6ft+ sets at better exposed breaks. WIND: Light to variable ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday, 12 May
SW swell reinforced with new S swell push, 6ft with occasional 6-8ft sets at standout south exposed breaks. WIND: ESE 5kts increasing SE 10-15kts through afternoon.

Monday, 13 May
S/SW swell mix continues with peak early, 6-8ft on top exposures, tending smaller through less exposed breaks. WIND: Light and variable ESE 5 to 10 knots.

OVERVIEW

Last week only saw small range mid-period swells and minimal surf topped off with 2-3ft sets along better open breaks. It would not take much to improve, so the good news is: it is about to pick up. The Indian Ocean is lighting with multiple swell sources from a range of low pressure systems pushing up new waves from the near south to the far southwest in the upcoming week.

A strong low pressure tracked from the south of South Africa and deepened into a compact storm system the south-central Indian Ocean last weekend. This scenario set up a long range SW groundswell arrival initially building long period sets Thursday 9 May and then peaking Friday, 10 May.

The SW swell will be reinforced before it has a chance to decrease. A new low pressure is shaping up off the southwest coast of Western Australia tonight. This intense low will generate a steeper angled and closer range south swell over the next several days.

Expect close range southerly swell to overlap pre-existing long period SW groundswell for a continued mix of large wave conditions straight late in the weekend. Due to the cross of swell periods and directions, wave shape may be expected to feel crossed up at times (but none-the-less increased wave size).

The southerly swell continues to build to a peak early next week due to the continued pulse of storm activity near WA. So while the preceding long period groundswell fades into Monday, waves continue to hold up strong from the closer range swell with a more southerly direction.

Offshore Virtual Buoy: Indo-35: Overlapping SW and SSW swells pick up surf for the end of the week and weekend.

Offshore Virtual Buoy: Indo-35: Overlapping SW and SSW swells pick up surf for the end of the week and weekend.

LONG RANGE

May’s storm pattern continues to crank up through the Indian Ocean for the long term. Another series of two succeeding large polar low pressure systems are forecasted to form over the next 24-48hrs in the deep Southern Ocean. These storms will push long range SW groundswell sources towards Indo for the middle of the month.

The first polar low will generate long period waves from the SW with arrival beginning to rise late Tuesday, 14th May. As the previous S swell fades Tuesday, surf will transformed back into a long period SW groundswell as new increasing sets build through Tuesday night.

A further distant storm source from the south of South Africa is projecting another long period but slightly smaller SW swell directly behind. Waves could overlap with yet another SW swell extending the run of waves further from the 16-17th May. Check back as more waves are on the way.

Long range projections show new SW groundswells production through the middle of May. Source: Coastalwatch Plus Wave Tracker Indian Ocean Swell period map.

Long range projections show new SW groundswells production through the middle of May. Source: Coastalwatch Plus Wave Tracker Indian Ocean Swell period map.


Tags: forecast , indonesia , bali (create Alert from these tags)

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