BALI, INDONESIA SURF FORECAST: 24 July - 7 August 2013

23 Jul 2013 0 Share

Coastalwatch’s Weekly Indo Surf Forecast Covering Bali, Java, Lombok and Sumbawa
Forecast Issued 23rd July, 2013 by Ben Macartney

Another series of overlapping SSW groundswell’s light up the Archipelago into the final week of July. This kicks off with several days of overhead to double overhead plus surf from Thursday to Sunday, culminating in a larger triple overhead SSW groundswell on Monday.

As Karlos Page discovered recently, it is a good time of year to be heading to Indonesia.

As Karlos Page discovered recently, it is a good time of year to be heading to Indonesia.

DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday 24: Leftover SW swell 2 – 3ft most exposed breaks, late increase to 3 – 4ft+ during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 20 knots.

Thursday 25: SSW swell 4 – 5ft exposed breaks early rising to 5 – 6ft during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Friday 26: SSW groundswell 5 – 6ft+ exposed breaks rising to 6 – 8ft during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure and easing during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday 27: SSW groundswell 5 – 8ft, easing during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday 28: SSW swell 3 – 5ft+ most exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 – 15 knots.

Monday 29: New SSW groundswell 8ft+ most exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 5 to 10 knots.

OVERVIEW
The immediate outlook sees a fading SSW groundswell dropping out to low levels by Wednesday morning – probably marking a low point in wave energy preceding a renewed rising trend in mid period SW groundswell getting underway later in the week. This should see smaller two to three foot surf across the most exposed breaks on Wednesday, rising to a more substantial three to five feet by Thursday morning before kicking towards four to six plus during the afternoon.

The source of this impending SW groundswell was a series of polar fronts feeding into a broader low pressure complex over the Southern Ocean, setting up an extensive, gale force SW fetch in conjunction with an intense high pressure system that remained slow moving below Madagascar mid to late last week. Although the low pressure complex weakened out as it migrated further eastward across the southern Indian Ocean last weekend, it continued to aim a narrower, gale force SSW fetch at Indonesia over the last few days and it maintained a compact fetch as a cut off low formed within close range of the West Australian Coast on Monday and Tuesday.

This fetch was aimed directly at Indonesia for several days and should drive an overlapping pulse of SSW groundswell to a peak of five to eight feet late Friday through early Saturday. This episode should taper off through Sunday but still maintain solid waves in the four to six foot range across the region’s more exposed breaks. The good news is this should mark an interim low point in wave energy ahead of a new, much larger SSW groundswell arriving on Monday.

Source: BOM. A large low pressure complex traversed our swell window over the last few days, setting up a steady run of SW swell into the end of the month.

Source: BOM. A large low pressure complex traversed our swell window over the last few days, setting up a steady run of SW swell into the end of the month.

Latest Virtual Buoy readings for Bali pick up another sustained run of large S/SW swell across the Archipelago this week.

Latest Virtual Buoy readings for Bali pick up another sustained run of large S/SW swell across the Archipelago this week.

LONG RANGE

This powerful episode follows the development of a new low pressure system forming as an active cold front sweeps across Kerguelen Island on Tuesday, giving rise to a deep mid latitude low over the south-east Indian Ocean by Wednesday morning. Although not overly large or intense, this storm system carries a compact SSW fetch towards Indonesia as the low tracks north-east towards Western Australia over the next 48 hours. This fetch goes to work upon a highly active sea state prevailing in the wake of the aforementioned cut off low, thereby generating maximum significant seas and swell of 25 to 30 feet within 1,600 nautical miles of Indonesian coasts by Friday morning.

Source: BOM. A fairly modest low pressure system moving across Indonesia's swell window over the next few days sets up a strong SSW pulse on Monday.

Source: BOM. A fairly modest low pressure system moving across Indonesia's swell window over the next few days sets up a strong SSW pulse on Monday.

The relatively short range of the deepwater swell from the coast minimises energy loss associated with wave decay and dispersion. A subsequent mid period SSW groundswell arrives during the final days of July; kicking in around eight to ten feet across the most exposed breaks on Monday 29 before scaling back to lower levels into Tuesday 30 and Wednesday 31.Beyond that we have a couple of new storm system’s projected to develop across various sectors of our swell window early to mid next week. The first of these is a new low traversing polar latitudes deep below the Kerguelen Islands on Sunday, setting up a broad zonal (west to east aligned) fetch spanning the south-east Indian Ocean as it tracks east on Monday and Tuesday. This holds speculative potential for a mid to large SSW groundswell early next month – probably arriving around Monday 5 and Tuesday 6 August. This may be backed up by a new, vast low pressure complex developing deep below Africa mid to late next week; hinting at a new SW swell event getting underway around Friday 9 August.

Tags: bali , lombok , G-land , surf forecast , ben macartney , Uluwatu , Keramas (create Alert from these tags)

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