BALI, INDONESIA SURF FORECAST: 31 July - 15 August 2013

30 Jul 2013 0 Share

Coastalwatch’s Weekly Indo Surf Forecast Covering Bali, Java, Lombok and Sumbawa


Forecast Issued 30 July, 2013 by Ben Macartney

An active winter storm track delivers another consistent run of mid range SSW swells this week, culminating in a couple of larger, back to back groundswells over the weekend and early next week.

The Indonesian Archipelago keeps on giving into the month of August.

The Indonesian Archipelago keeps on giving into the month of August.

DAILY SUMMARY
Wednesday 31
Leftover SSW swell 3 – 4ft+ exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending SE 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday 1
New SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft exposed breaks early, rising to 4 – 6ft during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: SE 10 to 15 knots.

Friday 2
SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft+ exposed breaks, gradually easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure and easing during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday 3
New SSW groundswell inconsistent 3 – 4ft early, increasing to 5 – 6ft+ during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday 4
SSW groundswell 4 – 6ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 – 15 knots.

Monday 5
SSW groundswell 4 – 5ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. Late increase in new SSW groundswell rises by Tuesday. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

OVERVIEW
Back to back SSW groundswells lit up the Archipelago over the weekend and early this week; peaking in the six to eight foot plus range across the more exposed breaks like Uluwatu before easing back in size by Tuesday morning. We’re now on the downward slide in wave energy, but surf heights should level off around the four foot mark across the most exposed breaks from Wednesday to Friday; sustained by a series of overlapping, mid period SW groundswells, generated by a series of frontal systems that traversed the south-east Indian Ocean over the course of last week.

From there we can look forward to a stronger pulse of SSW groundswell arriving over the weekend; building in on Saturday and holding good size throughout Sunday. The origin is an intense low pressure system that set up below South Africa last Thursday and Friday, followed by a second low tracing the same storm track last weekend. The groundswell is projected to pulse strongly throughout Saturday afternoon; probably peaking in the six to eight foot range late in the day before easing a notch by Sunday morning.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali hold plenty of promise for the coming week.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali hold plenty of promise for the coming week.

LONG RANGE
Monday marks the arrival of yet another, high energy SW groundswell; arising from a low pressure complex currently developing deep below South Africa and the Mozambique Channel. Over the next 72 hours the system aims a broad, gale force SW fetch at Indonesia as it migrates slowly eastward below Madagascar, setting up a long interval SW groundswell arriving early next week. The leading edge is projected to gradually build in across the region throughout Monday afternoon ahead of the bulk of groundswell hitting on Tuesday 6, followed by an easing trend setting in from Wednesday 7 to Friday 9 August.

Latest Wave Tracker projections capture a large SW swell developing over the southern Indian Ocean on Thursday. This energy arrives across the Archipelago on Monday and Tuesday.

Latest Wave Tracker projections capture a large SW swell developing over the southern Indian Ocean on Thursday. This energy arrives across the Archipelago on Monday and Tuesday.

From there, the next notable new swell source appearing on the long range horizon is a deep extratropical low forecast to develop over the South Atlantic Ocean this weekend. Based on some recent model runs, a complex storm system gradually amalgamates into a large, single celled monster located far below Africa’s west coast on Sunday. The vast scale of this storm system holds good potential for a long range SW groundswell, speculatively arriving around Monday 12 and Tuesday 13 August. This will be reviewed again next week.

Long range computer modelling hints at a strong pulse of SW groudnswell by mid August.

Long range computer modelling hints at a strong pulse of SW groudnswell by mid August.


Tags: bali , java , lombok , uluwatu , keramas , mentawaii , surf forecast (create Alert from these tags)

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