BALI, INDONESIA SURF FORECAST: 14 - 29 August 2013

13 Aug 2013 0 Share

Coastalwatch’s Weekly Indo Surf Forecast Covering Bali, Java, Lombok and Sumbawa

Forecast Issued 13 August 2013 by Ben Macartney

Augusts’ sustained run of clean overhead surf across the Archipelago continues as a deep low forming south-west of Western Australia sets up a series of strong SSW groundswells over the coming days.

An active winter storm track continues to deliver overhead surf to the Archipelago mid to late August.

An active winter storm track continues to deliver overhead surf to the Archipelago mid to late August.

DAILY SUMMARY
Wednesday 14
SSW groundswell 5 – 6ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday 15
New SSW groundswell sets around 4 – 5ft exposed breaks early, easing during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Friday 16
New SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft+ exposed breaks early, rising to 6 – 8ft during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 15 knots.

Saturday 17
SSW groundswell 6 – 8ft+ exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday 18
New SSW groundswell 8ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 – 15 knots.

Monday 19
SSW groundswell 6 – 8ft exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure and gradually easing during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

OVERVIEW
If you didn’t get your fill of the recent spate of large SW groundswells, then you’ll be pleased to hear there’s plenty more on the way over the coming week. Another large pulse of SW groundswell forecast to peak today (Tuesday) should gradually subside to lower levels over the next few days; still running at a solid five to six foot at breaks like G-Land and Uluwatu on Wednesday before paring back into the four to five foot range by Thursday morning.

Friday, however, sees a new winter scale SSW groundswell restoring wave heights to well overhead levels across the entire Archipelago. The swell source is a low pressure system currently developing over the south-eastern Indian Ocean, deep below Indonesia. The system is projected to steadily intensify throughout Tuesday, giving rise to a compact belt of SW gales well positioned inside Indonesia’s swell window. This sets up Friday’s initial push in groundswell that should see large six to eight foot sets across exposed breaks arriving at peak periods of 15 to 17 seconds on Friday morning.

Source: BOM. An intense extratropical low developing below Western Australia is the source of a sustained run of SSW groundswell across the Archipelago this week.

Source: BOM. An intense extratropical low developing below Western Australia is the source of a sustained run of SSW groundswell across the Archipelago this week.

As the low migrates below Western Australia on Wednesday it draws the fetch north-east, giving rise to a large 20 to 25 foot sea state situated inside the eastern fringes of Indonesia’s swell window. The end result is an acutely directional southerly groundswell pulsing again this weekend; maintaining solid six to eight foot surf across the most exposed reefs on Saturday – possibly peaking at slightly larger levels on Sunday and maintaining solid six to eight foot waves across the region on Monday.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bail show two consecutive spikes in SSW groundswell arriving this week and over the weekend ahead of an easing trend setting in early to mid next week.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bail show two consecutive spikes in SSW groundswell arriving this week and over the weekend ahead of an easing trend setting in early to mid next week.

The low continues to track further east below Western Australia on Friday as an embedded front feeds into an extensive south-westerly flow aimed at the Margaret River region. Although this trailing fetch is considerably weaker and narrower than the first, it acts upon an active sea state prevailing in the wake of the parent low, thereby giving rise to another smaller, but still solid pulse of SSW groundswell early next week; maintaining solid four to six foot surf through Tuesday 20 ahead of a further drop in size by Wednesday 21 August.

The Wave Tracker picks up heavy SW swell developing on the verge of Western Australian longitudes on Wednesday, giving rise to an extended run of SSW groundswell across the region later this week.

The Wave Tracker picks up heavy SW swell developing on the verge of Western Australian longitudes on Wednesday, giving rise to an extended run of SSW groundswell across the region later this week.

LONG RANGE
Based on latest projections late August sees a more subdued run of SW swell affecting the Archipelago. A new low briefly setting up over the far southern Indian Ocean this weekend extends a broad, low end gale force westerly fetch; sending out a comparatively modest SW pulse arriving late next week. This should mix in with a long range pulse of groundswell arriving over the weekend of Saturday 24 August, generated by an intense, compact low pressure system developing below South Africa this weekend. This system aims a broad area of WSW gales our way on Saturday and Sunday before tracking deeper into the southern Indian Ocean from Monday to Wednesday, maintaining intensity as it goes.

This hints at a solid SW groundswell arriving in the four to six foot range over the weekend of Saturday 24 preceding a second, similar sized pulse early in the week beginning Monday 26 August. Beyond that we may see another long range SW groundswell looming into the final days of August following another deep low forming below South Africa mid next week. This will be reviewed in next Tuesday’s update.

Tags: Bali , Keramas , Uluwatu , Sumbawa (create Alert from these tags)

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