BALI, INDONESIA SURF FORECAST: 28 August - 10 September 2013

27 Aug 2013 0 Share

Forecast Issued 27 August 2013 by Ben Macartney

If you were thinking the winter surf season might be winding down across the Indonesian Archipelago, think again. The onset of Spring brings a significant,long period SSW groundswell arriving during the first days of September.

Just when you thought the Indonesian surf season was winding down another powerful, winter-scale groundswell sets up for early September. Image:  Bruno Veiga/Aileoita.

Just when you thought the Indonesian surf season was winding down another powerful, winter-scale groundswell sets up for early September. Image: Bruno Veiga/Aileoita.

DAILY SUMMARY
Wednesday 28
SW groundswell 3 – 4ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday 29
SW swell around 2 – 3ft exposed breaks early, easing during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Friday 30
New SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft+ exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 5 to 15 knots.

Saturday 31
SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday 1
SSW swell 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 – 15 knots.

Monday 2
New SSW groundswell 4 – 6ft early, rising to 6 – 8ft exposed breaks during the day. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

OVERVIEW
The late season kicks into gear with the arrival of a powerful SSW groundswell into the first days of September; generated by a deep low pressure system forecast to develop below the Archipelago over the next few days. The immediate outlook sees a continuation of low to mid range SW swell gradually abating over the next two days; initially hanging in around the three to four foot mark on Wednesday before easing into the two to three foot range by Thursday morning. Friday marks the onset of a new, mid range SSW groundswell; marking the first in a series of strong pulses affecting the region into early September. This initial pulse is derived from a complex low that traversed Indonesia’s swell window on Thursday and Friday last week, setting up a mid period SSW pulse that should peak on Friday in the four foot range before slowly easing over the weekend.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali pick up Friday's initial SSW pulse backed up by heavier groundswell into the first days of September.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali pick up Friday's initial SSW pulse backed up by heavier groundswell into the first days of September.

However, early September marks the arrival two consecutive pulses of much stronger SSW groundswell affecting the entire Archipelago, following the development of an intense low pressure system over the south-eastern Indian Ocean over the next few days. This activity commences with first low intensifying on Wednesday and Thursday, setting up a compact SW fetch verging on Western Australian longitudes. A subsequent SSW groundswell travels north and builds in across exposed breaks throughout Monday 2nd September; possibly a little undersized early before rising into the six to eight foot range during the day.

This is reinforced by a larger SSW groundswell projected to make landfall throughout Tuesday 3 and Wednesday 4 September; generated by a broadscale extratropical low stalling below Western Australia on Friday and Saturday. Although some recent model runs have downgraded the intensity of the storm, it’s still projected to set up an extensive, gale force SW fetch elongating over 1,500 nautical miles across the southern Indian Ocean – in turn generating a heavy sea state in the 30 to 40ft plus range deep below Indonesia on Friday and Saturday. This should see heavier eight to ten foot surf across the region’s premier breaks on Tuesday, gradually easing throughout Wednesday.

Source: BOM. A large extratropical low developing on the verge of Western Australian longitudes on Thursday and Friday sets up a large SSW groundswell for the Archipelago on Tuesday 2 and Wednesday 3 September.

Source: BOM. A large extratropical low developing on the verge of Western Australian longitudes on Thursday and Friday sets up a large SSW groundswell for the Archipelago on Tuesday 2 and Wednesday 3 September.

LONG RANGE
As the storm system migrates below Western Australia this weekend it may briefly re-intensify as a trailing frontal system feeds into the parent low, generating a final, large SSW pulse arriving around Thursday 5/ Friday 6 September. There are also some projections picking up another intense polar low developing below the Kerguelen Islands on Sunday before tracking eastward on Monday, generating maximum significant wave heights of 30ft plus. This holds potential for yet another powerful SSW groundswell, speculatively arriving on Saturday 7 September.

This may overlap with a mid range SW groundswell into Monday 9 and Tuesday 10 September, generated by a compact mid latitude low forming within close proximity of South Africa’s Eastern Cape this weekend. Given the small dimensions of this system the resulting swell isn’t expected to top three to five feet, but this will become clearer in next week’s update.

Latest wave tracker swell animations show deepwater swell topping out in the 40ft range over the southern Indian Ocean on Friday.

Latest wave tracker swell animations show deepwater swell topping out in the 40ft range over the southern Indian Ocean on Friday.


Tags: surf forecast , keramas , uluwatu , sumbawa , lombok , java (create Alert from these tags)

blog comments powered by Disqus
Features
Watch: Episode 8 of Rivals – Danny Wills at Home on the NSW North Coast

Watch: Episode 8 of Rivals – Danny Wills at Home on the NSW North Coast

We're loving this home grown surf show!

29 Sep 2020
Lockdown Diaries: Meet the American Surfer Who Got "Stuck" at Supersuck

Lockdown Diaries: Meet the American Surfer Who Got "Stuck" at Supersuck

"They closed the borders, everything got cancelled, I got shut-in, and I stayed at Supersuck for four months. Pigdog heaven."

28 Sep 2020
Recent
Watch: Episode 8 of Rivals – Danny Wills at Home on the NSW North Coast

Watch: Episode 8 of Rivals – Danny Wills at Home on the NSW North Coast

29 Sep 2020
Watch: Episode 7 of Rivals – Bede Durbidge at Home in 4-5ft Straddie Barrels

Watch: Episode 7 of Rivals – Bede Durbidge at Home in 4-5ft Straddie Barrels

25 Sep 2020
Smashed In Vicco: A Couple Of The Lockdown State’s Finest Get Caught In The Mangler

Smashed In Vicco: A Couple Of The Lockdown State’s Finest Get Caught In The Mangler

2 22 Sep 2020
Master and Apprentice: Bethany Hamilton and Erin Brooks

Master and Apprentice: Bethany Hamilton and Erin Brooks

21 Sep 2020
Latest News

Smashed In Vicco: A Couple Of The Lockdown State’s Finest Get Caught In The Mangler

For a good chunk of this winter, it seemed like the Vicco crew had become the poor cousins of the surfing world...

Master and Apprentice: Bethany Hamilton and Erin Brooks

When Erin Brooks was nine and at the very beginning of her surfing journey, she met Bethany Hamilton.

Popular This Week

The Social Visa: Wondering How All These Surf Stars Are Cruising Around Indo? Here Ya Go

Remember when all this carnage started in March? And how briefly it looked like a whole Indo surf season would be going untravelled?

Lockdown Diaries: Meet the American Surfer Who Got "Stuck" at Supersuck

"They closed the borders, everything got cancelled, I got shut-in, and I stayed at Supersuck for four months. Pigdog heaven."

Padang Comes to Life as Late Season Swell hits Bali

Golden hour at perfect Padang Padang - it's been a good week to be in Bali... Photo: Childs

Go to Top