Indian Ocean Swell Alert: June 20, 2014

20 Jun 2014 9 Share

Swell Alert Issued by Chief Swell Forcaster Ben Macartney.

  • A deep low pressure complex developing below Madagascar Ocean intensifies and migrates eastward this weekend, generating vast seas and swell of 35 to 45ft. 
  • A resulting long period SW groundswell travelling out across the Indian Ocean produces large surf across the West Coast late Wednesday 25 and early Thursday before arriving across Victorian and Indonesian coasts from Friday 27 to Sunday 29 June.

    What’s undoubtedly shaping up as one of the larger Southern Hemisphere swells of the 2014 winter follows the development of a very large and complex storm system that’s already coalescing deep below South Africa and Madagascar. The storm set up an exceptionally large, gale force SW fetch below South Africa on Thursday and Friday and this propagates eastward with rising wind-speeds as the low tracks out across the southern Indian Ocean over weekend and early next week.

    This GFS model runs depicts surface winds generated by the complex low as it intensifies below Madagascar this weekend.

    This GFS model runs depicts surface winds generated by the complex low as it intensifies below Madagascar this weekend.

    The vast dimensions and exceptional strength of the fetch are projected to generate significant seas and swell in the order of 30 to 45 feet -  a sea state exhibiting vast coverage of the southwest Indian Ocean this weekend. A long interval WSW groundswell spreading out off this source is on track to fill in across the West Coast throughout Wednesday 25 June, exhibiting peak intervals in excess of 20 seconds. This is likely to see a very steep rise in wave energy into the afternoon, with large 8 to 10ft surf across exposed Southwest reefs and up to double this size on offshore bombies. The groundswell travels further north and east to reach Victorian and Indonesian coasts simultaneously on Friday 27 and Saturday 28 June – again generating powerful surf across all coasts. Stay tuned for updates on this in light of the low’s development over the next few days.

    WAVE TRACKER
    Significant Swell and peak period. 

    Latest Wave Tracker model runs capture a heavy sea state developing over the southwest Indian Ocean this weekend.

    Latest Wave Tracker model runs capture a heavy sea state developing over the southwest Indian Ocean this weekend.

    This Wave Tracker map depicts peak wave period, showing leading forerunner swells exhibiting peak intervals exceeding 20 seconds inbound across Indonesia and the West Coast next week.

    This Wave Tracker map depicts peak wave period, showing leading forerunner swells exhibiting peak intervals exceeding 20 seconds inbound across Indonesia and the West Coast next week.


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