Weekend Surf Forecast 5 - 7 October 2018
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Issued Thursday, 4 October 2018
It is a clear winner across the bight this weekend as an XL swell fades down and high pressure system takes control of conditions.
A large scale SW groundswell came as a solid punch to the South Coast on Thursday - derived from a storm that produced 40ft seas across the polar latitudes earlier in the week. On Thursday morning, buoys were detecting 7-8m swell with 20 second+ swell period, and although conditions were dealing with strong SW winds, there was no doubt surf was getting heavy. These waves will be gradually fading and moderating size across the bight Friday through Sunday for settling conditions. We should see some good morning conditions emerge as winds return to a diurnal land to seabreeze pattern (meaning light early before mild onshore in afternoon).
Meanwhile, the East Coast will get a dose of rain showers and varied conditions under the influence of a weak low pressure system situated near the Hunter Coast, NSW. The southern half of the low will be pushing in a moist SE wind stream making for difficult weather conditions and rising SE surf. Northern breaks of NSW will be better situated away from the influence of the trough, although scattered for wave heights with another secondary E tradeswell also in the mix. Check local conditions for winds this weekend with shifting conditions expected day to day.
Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
A weak East Coast Low will form near the coast and we see a short range, larger SSE pulse picking up Friday along with varied weather conditions this weekend. The SSE wind fetch developing under the trough will boost up bumpy surf, especially on southern beaches, although onshore winds will create poor conditions on most areas during that time. Look for protected corners as the better options with possible shift of SW wind later in the weekend.
Increased mix of both SSE swell and long period S swell wrap. Rise of lumpy 4 to 5ft surf exposed south facing beaches, inconsistent plus sets in the upper range. Elsewhere, sets superseded by rising SE windswell tending 2 to 4ft. WIND: SSE 20 to 30 knots early, tending ESE 15 to 20 knots in the arvo.
Setting mix of short and long range SSE swell sources. Early holding 3 to 5ft south facing breaks, grading to 3 to 4ft open beaches early, and tending smaller in protected areas. Lumpy but steadily decreasing throughout the afternoon. WIND: ESE 15 to 20 knots, tending E 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
SE swell fades down and tends E. Steady 2 to 3ft+ with remaining sets occasionally pushing in the upper range on south facing beaches. Grading to 2ft elsewhere. WIND: Early E to 10 knots, tending SE around 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
Moderate E swell will hold the trend this forecast period as we see a burst in tradewinds extending east of the dateline and maintaining steady surf. This moderate energy will offer up straight sets at 2ft range through to Sunday. As well, standouts of northern NSW also benefit from a long-range, long period S swell; refracting sets in late Friday/early Saturday. While inconsistent, 2 to 3ft south sets are possible to cross in at southern standouts, although varied to non existent in QLD due to the southerly swell angle.
E tradeswell and chance for S groundswell wrap rising at standouts. Sets speculatively building 2ft early to occasionally 3 to 4ft exposed south facing beaches of NSW, grading smaller 2ft in QLD beaches. WIND: Light N 5 to 10 knots, tending NE 10 to 15 knots during the arvo.
SSE swell possibly bumps up as E tradeswell holds. E sets maintain 2ft range on open areas while a south angled swell pulse crosses in 2 to 3ft+ sets on south facing breaks of NSW, grading to inconsistent 1 to 3ft exposed QLD beaches. WIND: NNE 10 to 15 knots, tending ENE through the day.
Gradually easing E swell and S swell. Tending 2ft range with occasionally better 3ft sets on south facing beaches of northern NSW, grading smaller in bays and points. WIND: Early ENE to 10 knots, tending E 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.
A large scale SW groundswell slowly drops as weather eases and winds abate from the SE into Friday and then turn to favourable calming morning wind conditions Saturday and Sunday. Morning are looking good for the weekend with the residual SSW groundswell decreasing slowly but still holding strength.
SW groundswell holds strong while slowly easing. Continued overhead 6 to 8ft along the exposed beaches, possibly settling later. Tending to wrap 6ft sets early on the Surf Coast reefs, settling to 4ft through the day under E wind. Size depending on exposure. WIND: SE 10 to 15 knots, possibly easing E through the day.
Decreasing SW swell with chance of light morning winds. Gradually fading back to 4 to 6ft along the exposed beaches. Wrapping at semi clean 3 to 4ft+ along the Surf Coast reefs early, before seabreeze, with size depending on exposure. WIND: Light and variable early with landbreeze tending NE to 10 knots before shift to light SE seabreeze 10 knots in the afternoon.
SW groundswell continues to ease and settle. Sets show inconsistent to 4 to 5ft along exposed beaches, wrapping good but slower 2 to 3ft along the Surf Coast reefs. WIND: Early light and variable NE land-breeze to 10 knots, tending to light sea-breezes SE to S 5 to 10 knots later.
A further ease in SW swell is expected from Friday and into the weekend. A low weakens as it shifts inland, with the high pressure system slowly shifting into the east. This gives SSE to ESE winds coupled smaller swell left overs within the 3 to 4ft range Down South and around 1 to 2ft at exposed Metro magnets.
Reinforcing mid period SW groundswell under light winds. South West: Potential for clean 3 to 5ft sets across exposed breaks early, building towards 4 to 6ft. Perth, Mandurah: Unsettled around 1 to 2ft at exposed beaches. WIND: Possible light and variable early before a fresh South to SSE change at 15 to 25 knots. Grading 10 to 15 knots NNW across Metro waters in the morning before the change.
Further ease in SW groundswell. South West coast: Clean in areas, 3 to 5ft sets exposed breaks, easing 3 to 4ft. Perth/ Mandurah: Around 1 to 2ft exposed beaches early, easing later. WIND: South, SSE 10 to 20 knots, tending 25 knots during the afternoon.
SW groundswell bottoms out under moderate ESE winds. Clean 3 to 4ft+ across exposed Southwest breaks, easing. Perth/Mandurah: Up to 1 to 2ft sets at exposed beaches. WIND: ESE, SE at 10 to 20 knots.
An easing trend of SW groundswell is expected to slowly take affect from Friday and into the weekend. We should see some fun sized left overs for the Mid Coast on Friday under clean offshore easterly winds. As the swell fades Saturday, we are seeing continued promise for winds to shift into the ENE creating mostly clean conditions for the South Coast. A weak trough moves across the region on Sunday bringing potential for varied wind conditions across the region but check local conditions.
Large SW groundswell gradually eases. South Coast: Bumpy 5 to 7ft at Waits and Parsons. Grading to 3 to 5ft around Middleton and easing later. Mid Coast: Clean 1 to 1.5ft. WIND: Early SE 10 to 20 knots.
SW groundswell eases further as winds potentially shift into the NE. South Coast: Scope for clean 3 to 5ft sets at Waits and Parsons. Grading 2 to 4ft around Middleton, easing. Mid Coast: Clean 1 to 1.5ft sets early, easing. WIND: ENE 10 to 15 knots tending to SE sea-breezes in the afternoon.
New SSW groundswell overlaps. South Coast: Potential for clean 3 to 4ft+ sets at Waits and Parsons, grading to 2 to 3ft around Middleton. Mid Coast: SW swell to 0.5 to 1ft at best. WIND: NE at around 10 to 15 knots tending SE in the afternoon.
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