Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 19 - 30 June, 2019

18 Jun 2019 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

Forecast Issued Tuesday, June 18, 2019

It may come as no surprise, but there’s little doubt the back half of June is going to pump across Indonesia. The coming week features successive pulses of mid to large SSW groundswell that should see plenty of challenging days in the 4 to 6ft range, interspersed with more user friendly lulls; probably not falling too far below 2 to 4ft. Going on latest model guidance, that should set the trend right through to the final days of June – at which point we might see something notably larger arriving – again out of the SSW.

You'll be over the moon if you're off to Indo late June. Photo: Bruno Veiga/Liquid Eye.

You'll be over the moon if you're off to Indo late June. Photo: Bruno Veiga/Liquid Eye.

Daily Summary

Wednesday 19
New SSW groundswell builds in from 205 degrees. Sets up 3 to 5ft along exposed breaks early, building to 4 to 5ft+ during the day. Wrapping at lower levels inside more sheltered breaks with size depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 15 knots, freshening to 15 to 20 knots during the day.

Thursday 20
SSW groundswell slowly eases. Up to 4 to 5ft+ across the most exposed breaks, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure and dropping a foot or so in the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots, freshening to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.

Friday 21
SSW groundswell from 210 degrees further eases. Sets around 3 to 4ft+ along exposed breaks, slowly settling in the arvo. Wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday 22
Leftover SSW groundswell levels off. Slow sets up to a clean 2 to 4ft across the most exposed breaks, fading in the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE around 10 to 12 knots in the afternoon.

Sunday 23
Scope for a renewed building trend in SSW groundswell from 215 degrees. Up to a solid 4 to 6ft across exposed breaks, wrapping in at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE around 10 to 12 knots.

Monday 24
Scope for stronger SSW groundswell building throughout the day. Speculatively 4 to 5ft+ exposed breaks early, rising to 4 to 6ft the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 to 20 knots.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali reflect successive pulses of SSW groundswell inbound over the coming week. Source: Wave Tracker.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali reflect successive pulses of SSW groundswell inbound over the coming week. Source: Wave Tracker.

Long Range
The evolution of another major, winter-scale swell-event is gradually beginning to take shape on the longer-range models.
The inception of this event is an intense polar low forecast to develop over the remote southern Indian Ocean; prospectively intensifying south of the Kerguelen Islands this weekend, before further evolving into a much larger, broadscale low pressure complex throughout the south-eastern Indian Ocean early next week. At this early stage, both EC and GFS models are in general agreement on these developments; indicating the storm system will give rise to an expansive, 40kt+ WSW to SW fetch-area: initially forming along it’s north-western quadrant throughout Sunday and Monday, before the swell-generating focus shifts more exclusively to the low’s western flan on Tuesday and Wednesday.

However, at this early stage the models differ on the finer details – particularly the overall size of the core-fetch area, along with the speed at which it will migrate eastward through Indonesia’s swell window early to mid next week. On the one hand the EC model suggests the low will retrograde out near 49S, 90E on Tuesday, whereas GFS moves it more swiftly away to the east with a weakening trend. Either way, both scenarios hint at a large even; arriving out of the SSW at low levels on Friday 28th, ahead of two large, back to back pulses arriving over the weekend of Saturday 29th June and the week of Monday 1st July. Keep in mind precise swell-potential and timing will continue to shift on exactly how all this plays out, so be sure to tune in again next week for a clearer picture.


Latest model runs are starting pick up another major swell-event for Indonesia; prospectively arriving into the final days of June. Source: Wave Tracker.

Latest model runs are starting pick up another major swell-event for Indonesia; prospectively arriving into the final days of June. Source: Wave Tracker.


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