Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 10 - 20 July, 2019

9 Jul 2019 1 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

Forecast Issued Tuesday, July 9, 2019

Back to back groundswells are stacking up on Indonesia’s swell-horizon into the middle of July. Admittedly, they do, for the most part look like coming in at relatively accessible levels; perhaps better suited to your short-board rather than a semi-gun. Wednesday marks the arrival of a new, mid-sized SW groundswell that should see wave heights picking up throughout the day and holding at overhead to double overhead levels at the more exposed reefs throughout Thursday.

That will lead in a string of smaller days throughout the weekend and early next week; still maintaining rippable 2 to 4ft conditions depending on where you look – and that looks like setting the trend for most of next week as a series of back to back SW groundswells arrive, maintaining days of good surf, with scope for something larger arriving over the weekend of Saturday 20th July.

The groundswells keep stacking up across Indonesia's swell window through mid-July. Photo: Andy Potts/ The Perfect Wave.

The groundswells keep stacking up across Indonesia's swell window through mid-July. Photo: Andy Potts/ The Perfect Wave.

Daily Summary

Wednesday 10
New SSW groundswell steadily builds. Up to an inconsistent 2 to 3ft+ along exposed breaks early, building to 3 to 5ft+ in the afternoon. Otherwise wrapping at lower levels inside more sheltered breaks with size depending on exposure. WIND: ESE 10 to 17 knots.

Thursday 11
SW groundswell slowly eases. Up to 3 to 5ft across the most exposed breaks, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure and dropping a foot or so during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 to 18 knots.

Friday 12
Smaller scale SW groundswell levels off around 2 to 3ft+ along exposed breaks, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 15 knots, up to 15 to 20 knots later.

Saturday 13
New SSW groundswell fills in from 220 degrees. Sets up to a clean 3 to 4ft across the most exposed breaks, grading to lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE around 10 to 15 knots, getting up to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon.

Sunday 14
Easing SSW groundswell from 215 degrees. Up to a 2 to 4ft across exposed breaks, wrapping in at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure and settling during the afternoon. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE around 10 to 15 knots.

Monday 15
Smaller leftover SSW groundswell gradually fades. Speculatively 2 to occasional 3ft exposed breaks early, fading in the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 10 to 20 knots.

Long Range
Through mid July we start to see the dominant source of surf shifting to Indonesia’s southwest swell window,
following the development of a large, blocking area of high pressure now setting up over the south-eastern Indian Ocean, directly south of Indonesia. Initially we have a couple of vigorous, albeit compact mid-latitude lows marching eastward, well north of the Kerguelen Islands over the next few days, ahead of a third, larger and similarly intense low developing below the Mozambique Channel on Friday and Saturday.

The first of the resulting SW pulses is due to move in on Tuesday 16th at pretty low-levels; offering a potential for peaks in the 3 to 4ft range as the bulk of energy arrives throughout Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. This would overlap with a slightly larger, second SW pulse showing peak size on Thursday; speculatively in the 3 to 5ft range at the more exposed breaks and maintaining fun size up to 3 to 4ft on Friday 19th.

SW swell arising from the more remote, third swell-source then holds prospective potential for something a bit bigger in the 4 to 6ft range around Sunday 21st before easing from there – but the specifics on this will become clearer in next week’s update. Beyond that, longer-term model guidance hints at a shift in the storm-track, back to our south swell window during the week of Monday 15th – and this presents further, albeit indeterminate SSW swell-potential for Indonesia through late July.

This Wave Tracker frame shows peak wave period, depicting a series of new SW pulses inbound across the region over the course of next week.

This Wave Tracker frame shows peak wave period, depicting a series of new SW pulses inbound across the region over the course of next week.


Tags: Indo Surf Forecast , Ben Macartney (create Alert from these tags)

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