Forecaster Blog: Victoria’s Surf coast to pump for days

7 Apr 2016 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

COASTALWATCH FORECAST | Forecaster Blog

Issued Thursday, 7 April 2016

There’s a whole lotta swell inbound down south. By down south, I’m talking Australia’s southern coastline – and in particular, Victoria’s Surf Coast. Every once in a while all the synoptic elements come together to produce consecutive days of good surf – as was seen across the NSW coast over the Easter long weekend and, more notably, across southern Queensland throughout January and February.

This time, it’s Victoria’s turn. The onset of a sustained run of sizeable, long-period SW groundswell coincides with favourable WNW winds; turning on the entire Surf Coast for days at a stretch. As discussed in the Weekend Forecast, this event is set to come to a head this weekend as SW groundswell builds throughout Saturday and peaks in the 6ft plus range on Sunday.

SEE ALSO: Weekend Surf Forecast 8 - 10 April 2016

There are days of good waves in store for Victorian surfers this weekend - not to mention next week. Photo: Judith Scanlon.

There are days of good waves in store for Victorian surfers this weekend - not to mention next week. Photo: Judith Scanlon.

The broader synoptic driver of this epic run of surf is a static high-pressure system that’s been anchored over the south-eastern Indian Ocean all week. A series of strong polar fronts skirting the southern boundary of the high are being steered north-eastward, up below the Great Australian Bight – and it’s the pressure gradient between the high’s south-eastern flank and the adjacent low pressure that’s fuelling an extensive, gale-force westerly fetch spanning the Southern Ocean.

The sustained duration and wide-reaching coverage of this fetch have spawned a vast wave-field that’s already impacting Victorian coasts. Although the swell is forecast to drop a notch on Friday, another larger SW pulse is on track to reinforce surf-heights state-wide over the weekend; producing an interim peak ranging either side of 6ft across the Surf Coast under ideal WNW winds.

SEE ALSO: Surf Forecast & Breakdown, Drug Aware Margaret River Pro 

Wednesday's MSLP chart depicts a succession of polar fronts work in conjunction with a quasi-stationary high pressure system southwest of the Margaret River region to aim a sustained run of SW groundswell at Victoria. Source: BOM.

Wednesday's MSLP chart depicts a succession of polar fronts work in conjunction with a quasi-stationary high pressure system southwest of the Margaret River region to aim a sustained run of SW groundswell at Victoria. Source: BOM.

Latest Wave Tracker model runs display the deepwater SW swell below the Bight travelling northeast.

Latest Wave Tracker model runs display the deepwater SW swell below the Bight travelling northeast.

Although a slow decline in SW groundswell follows early to mid next week, this long-enduring episode will continue to deliver powerful surf across the region over this time frame. Going on latest model runs, this sustained run of swell is set to culminate in one final, large, long period SSW groundswell; progressively building in during Wednesday afternoon ahead of a peak in size on Thursday morning.

Given the extended lead-time on these projections there’s still plenty of scope for changes to this scenario, so check back on for updates over the next few days.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Victoria reflect the sustained run of SW groundswell about to make landfall over the coming week.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Victoria reflect the sustained run of SW groundswell about to make landfall over the coming week.


Tags: victoria , forecast , swell , ben , macartney , topnews (create Alert from these tags)

blog comments powered by Disqus
More From Forecaster Blog
Forecaster Blog: Tasman Low Hammers the East Coast All Week

Forecaster Blog: Tasman Low Hammers the East Coast All Week

A deep low is dropping anchor over the central Tasman Sea..

14 Jul 2020
Forecaster Blog: Deep East Coast Low Wreaks Havoc Next Week

Forecaster Blog: Deep East Coast Low Wreaks Havoc Next Week

An impending East Coast Low looms large for the NSW coast next week.

9 Jul 2020
Forecaster Blog Updated: Tropical Cyclone Gretel Develops This Weekend

Forecaster Blog Updated: Tropical Cyclone Gretel Develops This Weekend

Tropical cyclone Gretel is about to form over the Coral Sea this weekend.

11 Mar 2020
Recent

Mick Fanning: Save This Shark

This is Mick Fanning’s take on that crazy incident at J-Bay in 2015 - the most watched moment in surfing history.

8 16 Sep 2020
Job Opportunity: We Need a Weekend Forecaster/Surf Reporter

Job Opportunity: We Need a Weekend Forecaster/Surf Reporter

3 14 Sep 2020
Watch: Episode 6 of Rivals – Shaun Cansdell at Home on the Coffs Coast

Watch: Episode 6 of Rivals – Shaun Cansdell at Home on the Coffs Coast

13 Sep 2020
Sean Doherty: The East Coast White Attacks – Where To From Here

Sean Doherty: The East Coast White Attacks – Where To From Here

68 12 Sep 2020
Nick Carroll: The Terrible Attack at Greenmount Will Blow the Shark Narrative To Pieces, Again

Nick Carroll: The Terrible Attack at Greenmount Will Blow the Shark Narrative To Pieces, Again

97 9 Sep 2020
Latest News

Mick Fanning: Save This Shark

This is Mick Fanning’s take on that crazy incident at J-Bay in 2015 - the most watched moment in surfing history.

Sean Doherty: The East Coast White Attacks – Where To From Here

The situation is crying out for moderation.

Popular This Week

Sean Doherty: The East Coast White Attacks – Where To From Here

The situation is crying out for moderation.

Mick Fanning: Save This Shark

This is Mick Fanning’s take on that crazy incident at J-Bay in 2015 - the most watched moment in surfing history.

Video: The Fizzlot kids – SW Grom Bash

A stoked out portrait of Australian Junior Surfing in the year 2018.

Go to Top