Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 20 - 31 October 2015
Forecast Issued Tuesday, 20 October, 2015 by Matthew McKay
After a mediocre winter, spring certainly delivered the goods across the Indonesian Archipelago. Unfortunately, it appears as though it is all coming to an end. A band of subtropical high pressure is slowing creeping south, effectively pushing those deep Southern Ocean storms toward the Antarctic.
Whilst it certainly won’t be flat, wave heights aren’t expected to exceed 3-4ft+ over the next 10 days. A peak in wave energy is expected on Wednesday before falling back to lower levels by Friday. The weekend will see a renewal in SSW groundswell before easing back to the 2ft mark by Monday October 26. Beyond this, we’re likely to see fun wave heights persist into early November.
Wednesday October 21
New SSW groundswell. 3-4ft+ at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots.
Thursday October 22
Mid period SSW swell. 2-3ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: ESE 5-10 knots increasing to 10-15 knots.
Friday October 23
Short period SSW swell. 2ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: SE 10-15 knots.
Saturday October 24
Small increase in SSW groundswell. Initially 2ft building to 2-3ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: SE 5-10 knots tending ESE 15-20 knots.
Sunday October 25
Mid period SSW groundswell. Initially, 2-4ft easing to 2-3ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: SE 10-15 knots tending ESE 15-20 knots.
Monday October 26
Low scale SW swell. 2-3ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: SSE 5-10 knots tending SE 10-15 knots.
Tuesday October 27
Low scale SW swell. 2-3ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: SE 5-10 knots increasing 10-15 knots.
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The late season flourish of waves is slowly but surely coming to an end. This has been evident throughout the past week as maximum wave heights failed to exceed the 6ft mark. A series of low-pressure systems, relatively weak in comparison to those seen a couple of weeks ago, delivered multiple SW swells to the region. The largest of these swells was the result of a complex storm system that entered our swell window this time last week. The eastward progression and consolidation of this system produced a brief, narrow fetch of strong westerly gales which saw a sustained run of solid 4-6ft waves across the region. As this system edged closer to Australia, we saw a subsequent reduction in swell energy which brings us to this forecast period.
A new, mid period SW swell began to fill in yesterday thanks to a broad, complex low-pressure system. Today, surfers awoke to fun 3 to 4-foot waves under early light winds. This swell is expected to build a touch throughout the day with a peak in wave energy due tomorrow morning. This relatively moderate peak is the result of the systems fast zonal migration and a large, subtropical band of high pressure situated over the central/ south Indian Ocean. This high is effectively suppressing any significant storm development within the Southern Ocean, with any significant fetch being zonally bias.
The decrease in wave energy is expected from Wednesday through to Friday once our low migrates toward the SE below the West Australian coast. Trailing this storm is another, weaker system. A relatively large area of west south-west to westerly winds ranging between 25-30 knots will continue to sustain low scale surf through to Saturday. Beyond this, we should see the arrival of a new small SW groundswell thanks to a narrow fetch of strong SW winds on the outer flank of the above-mentioned storm. This swell is forecast to peak on Sunday morning at 2-4ft ahead of a plateau of 2-3ft waves over Monday and Tuesday next week.
Beyond Tuesday, we will see small waves in the 2-foot range persist overnight into Wednesday. By Thursday,October 29 wave energy will increase slightly before a longer period swell emerges on Friday October 20; potentially producing waves in the 4 to 5 foot range under favourable winds. Looking further ahead, the GFS and EC long range model guidance is suggestive of a large band of high pressure making its way into the Indian Ocean.
The southward location and size of this band has the potential to suppress any significant swell from entering our swell window. That being said, there will still be fun waves about as there are still small to mid-sized waves forecast for the next couple of weeks. It is important to note that due to the long range nature of this forecast there is obvious divergence amongst global weather and wave models so please check back next week for an update. In the meantime, make the most of the next 10 days.
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