Over and Out: Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast October 27 - November 7, 2015

27 Oct 2015 0 Share

Forecast Issued Tuesday, 27 October, 2015 by Matthew McKay

SHORT FORECAST

The Indonesian Archipelago will continue to see fun waves throughout the next fortnight. Small to moderate waves are forecast over the next 5 days. Friday marks a low point in wave energy, before a gradual rise in wave heights throughout the weekend. Beyond this, the Southern Ocean storm track is set to reactivate and is expected to generate a solid round of SW groundswell; due on the afternoon of Monday, November 2.  

Looking further ahead, this initial swell will ease steadily throughout the week before another moderate long range south-west groundswell enters the region by the following weekend.

SEE ALSO: Coastalwatch Wavetracker Live Action 

Latest WaveTracker model run showing wave heights in excess of 30ft in the Southern Indian Ocean. This swell is expected to arrive across Indonesia by Monday, November 2.

Latest WaveTracker model run showing wave heights in excess of 30ft in the Southern Indian Ocean. This swell is expected to arrive across Indonesia by Monday, November 2.

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DAILY SUMMARY

Wednesday, October 28
Fun SW swell. 2-3ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Thursday, October 29
Mid-sized SW swell. 2-4ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE 10-15 knots.

Friday, October 30
Small SW swell. 2ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND Light and variable tending ESE 5-10 knots.

Saturday, October 31
Gradually building SW swell with underlying SW groundswell. 2-3ft+ with larger inconsistent sets at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending SE 5-10 knots.

Sunday, November 1
Mid-sized SW groundswell. 3-4ft at exposed breaks. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending SSE 5-10 knots.

Monday, November 2
Building long period SW groundswell. Initially 3-4ft at exposed breaks, building to 4-5ft by the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending SSE 5-10 knots.

Tuesday, November 3
Solid SW groundswell. Initially 4-5ft at exposed breaks, building to 6-8ft by late afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light and variable tending SSE 5-10 knots.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali pick up a fresh round of solid SW groundswell entering the region by Monday November 2.

Latest virtual buoy readings for Bali pick up a fresh round of solid SW groundswell entering the region by Monday November 2.

OVERVIEW

This will be our last surf forecast for the year as an epic late season for the Indonesian region draws to an end. Throughout the last couple of months, the archipelago has been graced with a consistent run of SSW/SW groundswells with the odd larger storm propagating perfect waves across the world famous reefs.  This has been a consequence of a fluctuation in the high latitude long wave pattern; persistent longwave troughs have effectively guided strong polar storms northward into the south to south-westerly, Indian Ocean, resulting in epic waves.

However, a reduction in wave energy has been evident over the past few days due to a subsidence in long wave activity. This trend of small to moderate waves is set to continue until Monday November 2 as a larger pulse of south-westerly groundswell is due to impact the region. Beyond this, the long range SW groundswell is expected to ease throughout the first week of November before yet another pulse in groundswell speculatively reaching Indonesia by Saturday November 7.

SEE ALSO: Jock Serongs Short History On Rock Offs

As mentioned previously, fun waves are on the menu. A series of low-pressure systems are currently passing through the southern parts of the Indian Ocean; unfortunately due to their fast eastward movement and zonal wind characteristics they aren’t seen as significant swell sources. In saying this, surfers throughout Indonesia should still expect 2-3ft waves on Wednesday October 28. The latest model guidance suggests that a small increase in wave energy will be evident by Thursday with wave heights in the 2 to 4-foot range. At this stage Friday marks a low point in wave energy as winds on the outer band of the aforementioned storms will tend NW; thus wave heights won’t exceed the 2ft mark.

An increase in wave height is predicted for Saturday, as a small long range groundswell fills in; and so, there should be larger, albeit inconsistent sets over the course of the day. The good news is that wave heights are forecast to build from here on in. A deep (sub 950hPa) low-pressure system with SW winds in the 40-45 knot range is en route, and will enter our swell window by Saturday evening (see Wavetracker).

So what does this mean? Well due to the distance between Indonesia and the swell source, we will see the leading forerunners greet our shores by Monday afternoon. Initially wave heights on Tuesday will be in the 4 to 5-foot range before the bulk of this swell fills in during the afternoon, speculatively producing sets in the 6 to 8-foot range across the exposed reefs.

Over this forecast period, early light and variable winds will be on offer before being replaced by light ESE/SSE trade flow during the afternoon. These light and variable winds are often a sign of a transition between seasons and usually occur ahead of the impending north monsoon. 

Living the Indonesian dream. Photo: Coastalwatch Plus Member randysparrow.

Living the Indonesian dream. Photo: Coastalwatch Plus Member randysparrow.

LONG RANGE

Beyond Tuesday, we will see solid waves in the 6 to 8-foot range persist overnight into Wednesday. By Thursday, November 5, wave energy will slowly decline back to the 4-5ft range throughout the day. Once again, Friday November 6 will mark another low point in wave energy as our swell producing system migrates eastward. Looking further ahead, the latest GFS model run is hinting at the possibility of another strong low entering our swell window by mid-next week.

The latest WaveWatch III data depicts this scenario, and is suggestive of a rise in SW groundswell due by the weekend of November 7/8. Gazing further into the future, the most recent GFS longwave model run shows a number of potential swell sources for early to mid-November.

It is important to note that due to the long range nature of this forecast there is obvious divergence amongst global weather and wave models. Have a good summer and keep an eye out for our global surf forecast in the near future.

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