Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 10 - 17 May, 2017

9 May 2017 0 Share

Photo by Bevan Gemmel

Photo by Bevan Gemmel

COASTALWATCH | BALI, INDO SURF FORECAST 

Forecast Issued by Katie Jackson. Tuesday, 9 May 2017

Welcome back to the once-a-week Indo forecast that will be updated every Tuesday, rolling right through the winter surf season through to the end of October. Solid early season swell on the cards for Indo late this week!

BOARD GUIDE: Why Are These 9 Boards The Best For Indo This Season? 

Coastalwatch Wave Tracker shows increased wave period for the Archipelago on Friday

Coastalwatch Wave Tracker shows increased wave period for the Archipelago on Friday

Short Forecast

A new large scale SW groundswell pushes up from a productive storm that lit up across the central Indian Ocean last weekend. Mid May is indeed looking like a great time to be in Indo if you are up for the extended run of good looking deepwater swells.

Daily Summary

Wednesday 10
Old SSW swell around 4 to occasional 6ft exposed breaks. WIND: ESE 10 to 20 knots

Thursday 11
New long period WSW groundswell fills in. Sets building throughout the day, beginning inconsistent around 6 to 8ft early and rising 8 to 12ft on exposed breaks through evening. WIND: ESE 10 to 20 knots

Friday 12
Bulk of large long period SW groundswell fills in 8 to 10ft, with larger sets possible on exposed deepwater reefs early. WIND: ESE 5 to 15 knots.

Saturday 13
Decrease of long period SW groundswell, ranging 6 - 8ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. WIND: ESE tending SE 5 to 15 knots.

Sunday 14
Fading SSW groundswell 4 – 6ft+ exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. WIND: Early light tending ESE to SE 5 to 10 knots.

Monday 15
SSW groundswell fades gradually, ranging 4 to 6ft on exposed breaks off leftover inconsistent sets. WIND: Early light tending SE 5 to 10 knots.

Source BOM. Last weekend’s storm in the central Indian Ocean showed a large SW fetch that will provide a solid push of SW groundswell across Indo this Thursday and Friday

Source BOM. Last weekend’s storm in the central Indian Ocean showed a large SW fetch that will provide a solid push of SW groundswell across Indo this Thursday and Friday

Overview

A new SW swell source will be rising surf through Thursday, peak by Friday, and then gradually and slowly ease early next week. The storm responsible for the new swell initially began to brew last Friday in a compact polar low pressure system deep under Madagascar. This low pressure then flared up with a significant SW fetch expanding and moving in favourable direction towards Indonesia in the central Indian Ocean last Saturday. The large scale SW fetch situated itself across the mid latitudes on Sunday with a sustained long period WSW to SW swell source dished out towards the Indonesia archipelago. The final stages of the complex storm system saw the last stretch of SSW wave generation Monday, as it dissipated off the southwest coast of West Australia.

There will be a revolving mix of long period WSW to SSW swells stemming from the several stages of this storm and we will see a long and spread out dose of mid to large scale waves streaming in over the end of the week and the upcoming weekend.

In the short term, Wednesday will be a waiting day as we see an old SW swell fading slightly; mostly ranging in the inconsistent 4 to 5ft range on exposed breaks. However, Thursday morning should mark the first arrival of new long period forerunners off the initial mid range push of WSW wave energy, tending inconsistent with deepwater sets of 18 seconds+ and offering a building trend through the day.

Long period WSW swell will gradually build through Thursday midday ahead of a solid increase and spike to large scale SW groundswell arriving Thursday. At this stage, the deepwater swell energy is looking to sustain a long period sets throughout Friday and hold good in the weekend as wave heights begin to slowly and gradually fade under easing tradewinds Saturday through Monday.

For heights, look for the initial sets to provide a mid range pulse of inconsistent 6 to 8ft surf early Thursday, then building with the occasional 10ft waves in the afternoon. By Thursday evening, we should see the occasional deepwater bombs filling in and this holds potential for 10 to 15ft sets on the better exposed reefs with the peak swell arriving by daybreak Friday 12 May. Conditions also look great with trades also consistent and slightly easing through the end the week. With this combination, Friday is expected to be a classic day showing solid surf off of the early season swell.

SW swell energy hangs on throughout the weekend, although wave size will be gradually tapering off; easing sets to 6 to 8ft range Saturday and backing down into the inconsistent 6ft range Sunday into Monday. As well, the extended lifecycle of the same storm off WA shows a smaller addition of long period SSW swell. This last leg of the swell train should hold up an extension of mid sized surf through the first half of next week, potentially maintaining 4ft+ range sets for open areas on Tuesday.

LONG RANGE

Based on latest long range charts, mid May should see the best of the forecast period before swells will be slowly trickling off at the end of next week.

A new round of small to mid range SSW groundswell will help continue to hold up inconsistent long period sets across the region Wednesday 17 May. As this stage, the low range swell will offer an inconsistent mix of deepwater SW sets at around 1.2m, pushing in 3 to 6ft surf to better exposed breaks midweek. However, due to the distance of the storm track from under South Africa, we should expect some extended lulls to create long waits between those waves.

The peak of the that distant low range SW swell will pass fairly small Wednesday and see leftovers Thursday with waves occasionally in the 3 to 4ft zone (again with long breaks inbetween sets). Wave size will be dependent on the distant intensification of a polar low south-east of South Africa over the next few days. Unfortunately, the swell decay from the far travel distance will result in the SSW groundswell turning minimal Friday and continue small into the following weekend.

Tags: indo , surf , forecast , coastalwatch (create Alert from these tags)

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