Bali, Indonesia Surf Forecast 28 August - 5 September, 2019

27 Aug 2019 0 Share

Ben Macartney

Chief Surf Forecaster

Forecast Issued Tuesday, August 27, 2019

The month of August just keeps on giving across Indonesia. This week features consecutive days of clean, pumping SSW groundswell; ranging anywhere from 3 to 6ft across exposed breaks depending on time and tide, as moderate ESE tradewinds remaining in place for the foreseeable future. On top of that, it’s now clear the good times will keep coming into the opening days of September. Already, we’re starting to see another significant source of SSW groundswell taking shape over the south-eastern Indian Ocean, lending high confidence to another winter-scale episode for the region.

The excellent run of late season groundswell just keeps on coming into early September. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Ilikebrownie.

The excellent run of late season groundswell just keeps on coming into early September. Photo: Uploaded to CW by Ilikebrownie.

Daily Summary


Wednesday 28
Reinforcing SW groundswell from 220 degrees builds in under existing SSW swell; ranging from 3 to 5ft+ along exposed breaks. Wrapping at lower levels at more sheltered breaks with size depending on exposure. WIND: ESE to SE 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday 29
Easing SSW swell from 210 degrees gradually reinforced by new SSW groundswell from 215 degrees throughout the day. Sets mostly ranging from 3 to 5ft across the most exposed breaks, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE to SE 10 to 15 knots.

Friday 30
Solid SSW groundswell from 215 degrees peaks and slowly eases in the afternoon. Sets around 3 to 5ft+ along exposed breaks, wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE/SE 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday 31
Reinforcing SSW groundswell from 215 degrees throughout the morning. Sets up to a clean 3 to 4ft+ across the most exposed breaks. Wrapping at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE/SE around 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon.

Sunday 1
Easing SSW groundswell from 215 degrees. Slower sets to 3 to 4ft across exposed breaks, wrapping in at lower levels elsewhere with size depending on exposure and settling during the afternoon. WIND: Light and variable tending ESE/SE around 10 to 15 knots.

Monday 2
Scope for larger SSW groundswell rising from 210 degrees throughout the day. Up to 5 to 6ft+ exposed breaks early, peaking at 6 to 8ft+ during the afternoon. Grading smaller elsewhere depending on exposure. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE/SE 10 to 15 knots.

Long Range
Over the next 48 hours we have another notable swell-source taking shape inside Indonesia’s south-swell window. This surrounds a vigorous frontal low intensifying just west of the Kerguelen Islands on Tuesday, extending a broad SSW fetch towards Indonesia throughout Wednesday and Thursday.
Although not overly strong (mostly 30 knots, surrounding a smaller area of core 40 to 45 knots) the head of the fetch extends as far north as the 25S parallel. An anteceding front feeding into the low’s upper western flank on Thursday will add further fuel to this source; giving rise to two distinct, overlapping pulses arriving early next week. The first looks like providing a significant boost to wave-heights on Sunday afternoon, leading in a couple of full days of large SSW groundswell enduring throughout Monday 2nd and Tuesday 3rd September.

The wave height and period numbers depicted on latest virtual buoy readings promise consecutive days of powerful surf across the archipelago. Source: Wave Tracker.

The wave height and period numbers depicted on latest virtual buoy readings promise consecutive days of powerful surf across the archipelago. Source: Wave Tracker.

There are further indications the storm-track will remain active over the region this weekend. A new polar low pushing up below Heard Island on Saturday is projected to reinvigorate a broad 30 to 35kt SW fetch over the same region. Going in GFS guidance, this system will support a broader, slow-moving SSW fetch inside Indonesia’s south swell window during the opening days of September; thereby giving rise to yet another substantial run of mid-period SSW ground in the 5 to 8ft+ range; arriving on Thursday 5thand Friday 6th September and speculatively maintaining good size over the weekend of Saturday 7th.

Beyond that, the fringes of long-range EC modelling points to the evolution of an intense mid-latitude low directly south of South Africa on Tuesday 3rd and Wednesday 4thIf this proves accurate, the low will expand into a larger Southern Ocean low as it moves below Madagascar on Thursday 5th; emerging as a significant source of SW groundswell for Indonesia into the second week of September. For now this presents speculative potential for a new energy filling in around Thursday 12th and Friday 13th of September – but details on this will become clearer in next week’s update.

An active storm-track setting up over the south-eastern Indian Ocean this week holds latent SSW swell-potential for the first week of September. Source: Wave Tracker.

An active storm-track setting up over the south-eastern Indian Ocean this week holds latent SSW swell-potential for the first week of September. Source: Wave Tracker.


Tags: Indo Surf Forecast , Ben Macartney (create Alert from these tags)

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