The Weekend Surf Forecast 7 - 9 April 2017
COASTALWATCH | WEEKEND SURF FORECAST
Issued by Katie Jackson 6 April 2017
Well it will be hard to compare to last week’s forecast. Can anything really live up to our previous weekend’s conditions, where we saw practically every surfable coastline firing up across Australia? Well, it will may be a slower weekend in comparison, but no doubt there are still swell options around the continent.
Looking towards the south, a large-scale polar low in the Southern Ocean will see another large SW swell move across the bight. The early south swell alignment with WA will offer a good shot of head high plus waves to wrap up the final days of the Margaret River Pro along with clean conditions.
As the polar low flares up towards SA Saturday and then Victoria Sunday, frontal winds will proceed a brunt hit of large scale SW swell energy. Early in the weekend, offshore N’ly flow offers clean conditions ahead of the storm passage. Then once that front arrives, it will be necessary to search out protection from the weather elements as a new XL SW swell fills in under heavy onshores.
On the East Coast, remnants from Cyclone Debbie will taper off as we have a high-pressure system setting up in the central Tasman Sea. The northern flank of the high will generate mild E trades towards QLD for smaller E waves. Meanwhile, the established central high over NSW will be offering clean and yet small to minimal surf under fair weather.
FORECASTER TIP: It will be worth noting the movement of the low over Victoria Sunday as we could see a new cut off low form off NSW Monday! Check out the NSW extended written forecast for updates on next week’s possible East Coast Low development.
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Sydney, Newcastle and the South Coast
A small final stretch of ESE swell from the last leg of ex-Tropical Cyclone Debbie will fade off in the 2 to 3ft range Friday under lighter inshore winds. Clean residual waves likely to be lingering at a slow 2ft early on Saturday, but it will continue fading as the day progresses. This should culminate in tiny levels by Sunday; probably fading to near flat levels to 1ft on Sunday.
Clean ESE swell gradually fades. Ranging from 2 – 4ft exposed open breaks early, easing throughout the day..
WIND: Early light WNW tending light and variable, then ENE 5 to 15 knots during the afternoon. ?
Fading residual ESE swell. Mixing with background S swell. Slow sets around 2ft exposed breaks, fading to 1 – 2ft during the day.
WIND: Early light WNW to NW tending NE 10 to 20 knots during the afternoon.
Slight ENE wind swell. Mostly 1ft+ exposed breaks, with scope for a minor rise in NE wind swell during the afternoon.
WIND: Early light NW tending N 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon ahead of a late WSW change 15 to 25 knots later.
Queensland and Far Northern NSW
A high-pressure system sets up to our east with a modest E wind pattern. Old SE swell remnants from TC Debbie decreases to incrementally lower levels on Friday. Short range E wind swell emerges as the dominant source of surf at about 3ft across the region over the weekend.
Decreasing ESE swell. Sets to 3 – 4ft exposed northern NSW breaks, wrapping in at 2 – 3ft+ across southern Queensland and smaller inside the points and bays.
WIND: Early SW/SSW 10 to 15 knots, tending SE during the afternoon.
?Modest ESE wind swell. Sets up to 2 – 4ft exposed breaks, grading smaller inside the points and bays.
WIND: Early SW/SSW 5 to 15 knots, tending SE during the afternoon.
E tradewind swell. Consistent 2 – 3ft+ exposed breaks, grading smaller inside the points and bays.
WIND: SSW 5 to 10 knots inshore early, tending SE 5 to 15 knots during the day.
A large storm system will strengthen across the bight as it tracks towards the Bass Straight late this weekend; initiating an upward trend in back to back SW swells. Preliminary SW swell will start with moderate sets Friday and Saturday, followed up with a large SW swell event on Sunday. Prefrontal N winds will offer grooming offshore conditions Friday and Saturday; before a stronger W to SW wind shift and a bulk of new large SW swell builds through Sunday.
Offshores and SW groundswell. Around 3 – 5ft exposed beaches. Sets to 2 – 4ft across the Surf Coast, easing later.
WIND: N 10 to 15 knots.
Reinforcing SW groundswell with offshores. Sets around 3 - 5ft exposed coasts. Grading to 2 – 4ft across the Surf Coast. WIND: NNW 15 to 25 knots, easing later.
Strong SW groundswell builds with possible storm front. Solid 3 – 5ft exposed beaches, building to 4 – 6ft throughout the afternoon and possibly 5 – 6ft+ later. Sets around 2 – 3ft across the Surf Coast, picking up to 3 – 4ft during the day.
WIND: Early light WNW 10 to 20 knots tending WSW 15 to 25 knots, then SW and freshening to 20 to 40 knots later.
A moderate midperiod SW swell mix holds fair through Friday and Saturday as winds swing SE and improve conditions heading into the weekend. A slightly better aligned SW groundswell reinforces overhead set waves Sunday and winds show good, potentially wrapping up the final day of the Margaret River Pro.
SSW swell mix gradually improving. Southwest coast: 3-5ft, tending largest on S exposures. Perth/Mandurah: 0.5ft.
WIND: SSE 10-20kts early, tending S in afternoon.
Clean holding SW swell. S swell continues under clean morning offshore wind. Southwest coast: 3-5ft with inconsistent plus sets. Perth/Mandurah: flat-0.5ft.
WIND: Light SE early to 10kt. Tending SSE to S in afternoon.
Groomed reinforcing SW groundswell. Clean wind conditions. Southwest coast: inconsistent 4-6ft sets on top exposures, tending smaller 3-4ft elsewhere. Perth/Mandurah: 0.5ft.
WIND: E 5-10kts tending light to variable in afternoon. Possible light seabreeze.
Polar storm activity to our south will pick up SSW swell action through the weekend. A mid-sized SW swell fills in Friday and continues Saturday morning under easing offshore northerly wind flow. Saturday will build gradually and by nightfall, we will see an abrupt arrival of a polar low and associated cold front. For surf, this storm offers up a strong southerly wind fetch off the backside of the low with large scale SW groundswell filling in and peaking with strongest size through early Sunday.
SSW groundswell. Clean sets up to 2 - 3ft+ exposed South Coast beaches, picking up during the arvo. Grading to 0.5 - 1ft across the Mid Coast.
WIND: NNE 10 to 15 knots, tending lighter NNW during the afternoon.
Slow rise in new SSW groundswell. Mostly 2 - 4ft exposed South Coast beaches. Grading to 1ft+ across the Mid Coast.
WIND: Early NNW tending NW and freshening ahead of a late SW change.
Large SSW swell with SW wind shift. Increased sets ranging from 3 - 4ft+ exposed South Coast breaks, unsettled early. Grading to 1 - 2ft across the Mid Coast.
WIND: SW 15 to 25 knots tending SSW later.
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