Indo Swell Forecast, Thurs 7 June, 2012

7 Jun 2012 0 Share

Bali to Java Swell Forecast issued Thursday, 7 June 2012.

Summary
Friday 8
New SSW groundswell 3 – 4ft+ exposed breaks.  WIND: ESE 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday 9
SSW groundswell 3 – 5ft exposed breaks. WIND: ESE 5 to 15 knots.

Sunday 10
SSW swell 3 – 4ft exposed coasts. WIND: ESE 5 to 15 knots.

Monday 11
New SW groundswell 3 – 4ft exposed breaks, building to 4 – 5ft during the afternoon. WIND: ESE 5 to 15 knots.

Tuesday 12
SW groundswell 5 – 6ft exposed breaks,. WIND: SE 5 to 15 knots.

Wednesday 13
SSW groundswell 4 – 5ft exposed breaks, gradually easing. WIND: SSE 5 to 15 knots.

The Wave Tracker swell animation shows peak wave period; depicting the leading edge of a new SSW pulse arriving on Thursday.

The Wave Tracker swell animation shows peak wave period; depicting the leading edge of a new SSW pulse arriving on Thursday.

Forecast Overview
The easing trend in SSW swell over the last few days comes to an end on Friday; the spell broken by the arrival of a long range SSW groundswell that should restore wave heights to a solid four foot across exposed coasts. The new groundswell was generated by a deep, complex low that tracked beneath South Africa from Monday to Wednesday last week, generating a broad area of WSW gales across our long range swell window. The leading edge of the groundswell is loosely forecast to hit late on Thursday ahead of the bulk of swell arriving during Friday 8.

Source BOM. A series of deep low pressure systems moving beneath South Africa and Madagascar early this week set up conecutive pulses of SW swell over the outlook period.

Source BOM. A series of deep low pressure systems moving beneath South Africa and Madagascar early this week set up conecutive pulses of SW swell over the outlook period.

New SW groundswell on Monday
A gradual easing trend in wave heights follows over the weekend of Saturday 10 June; scaling back from four to five feet on Saturday to around three to four by Sunday. From there we have a new SW groundswell set to push wave heights back up a notch early next week.  The source is a more intense extratropical low that set up beneath South Africa last weekend, generating stronger SW gales across our long range swell window before gradually weakening as it rotated across the southern Indian Ocean early this week.

The Wave Tracker virtual buoy point for Bali shows a series of mid range SW groundswells inbound across the region over the coming week.

The Wave Tracker virtual buoy point for Bali shows a series of mid range SW groundswells inbound across the region over the coming week.

The leading edge of the resulting long period SW groundswell is projected to fill in during Monday 11 June pushing wave heights up into the three to four foot range during the afternoon. The peak of this episode is likely to occur throughout Tuesday 12; sustaining solid five to six foot surf across the most exposed breaks before easing back to a foot or so by Wednesday 13.

New, mid range SW groundswell arrives on Thursday 14 JuneAlthough this episode should ease back another notch by Thursday 14, it should overlap with a new round of SW groundswell, emanating from a deep low that moved out of the south-eastern Atlantic, beneath South Africa early this week. The relatively small dimensions of the storm ensures the resulting SW swell is unlikely to top three to four feet across exposed breaks during Thursday 14.

This episode is likely to be reinforced by a shorter range, mid period SSW swell originating from a low end gale force SSW fetch elongating across the far eastern Indian Ocean this weekend; sustained by a complex Southern Ocean low situated along Western Australian longitudes.

This is likely to maintain three to four foot surf across exposed breaks throughout Friday 15. This may overlap with another small to mid range S swell, emanating from a cut off low tracking towards Western Australia early next week. For the time being this is projected to generate another two to four foot S pulse over the weekend of Saturday 16 June, but this will become clearer in next week’s update.

Long Range

Beyond that a larger extratropical low is projected to migrate across the southern Indian Ocean early next week; speculatively setting up a new round of long range SSW swell for the region around Tuesday 21 and Wednesday 22 June. However, projected wind speeds are not overly high or well aligned with Indonesia, so this source isn’t expected to generate surf exceeding three to six feet.

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