Indo Swell Forecast, Thurs, 25 August 2011

25 Aug 2011 0 Share



Indonesia: Bali to Java Forecast Issued 3.30pm, Thursday, 25 August, 2011. By Ben Macartney.

Short Forecast

Friday
SSW swell 5 – 8ft exposed breaks. WIND: Early light winds tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Saturday
SSW swell 4 – 6ft exposed breaks, smaller elsewhere. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Sunday:
SSW swell 3 – 4ft+ exposed coasts, smaller elsewhere. WIND: Light early tending ESE 15 – 25 knots.

Monday:
New SSW groundswell 2 – 4ft exposed breaks early increasing to 3 – 5ft during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Tuesday
SSW groundswell 4 - 6ft exposed breaks. WIND: Light and variable tending E/SE 15 – 25 knots.

Wednesday
SSW swell 3 - 4ft+ exposed coasts. WIND: Early light and variable tending E/SE 15 – 20 knots.

Forecast Overview
There’s no shortage of new swell inbound across the Archipelago this week. A new round of SSW groundswell kicked in at four to six feet across exposed coasts on Wednesday and Thursday; a solid pulse emanating from an active storm track that set up over the south-eastern Indian Ocean last week, sustaining a broad, gale force SW fetch in conjunction with an intense high situated beneath Madagascar.

Solid SSW groundswell on Friday and Saturday
This episode is reinforced by a new pulse of SSW groundswell building in on Friday; pushing wave heights up to a solid five to eight feet across the most exposed breaks during the day. The source of the new swell is an intense extratropical low that developed beneath Kerguelen Island last weekend, generating gale force SW fetch as it traversed north-eastward across the southeast Indian Ocean on Sunday and Monday.

The leading edge of the resulting groundswell fills in on Thursday night, pushing wave heights up to a solid six to eight feet across exposed coasts into early Friday 27 August. An easing trend follows this weekend, subsiding into the four to six foot range by Saturday and back to three to four feet plus by Sunday.

Reinforcing SSW groundswell on Monday
Although the tail end of this episode hovers around two to three feet across the region on Monday, wave heights receive a boost from a new, mid range pulse of SSW groundswell peaking at 16 second intervals. This emanates from an intense polar storm that intensified deep beneath India on Tuesday; it’s central pressure bombing to 946hPa on Wednesday;

BOM
Source BOM. A deep polar low tracing the Antarctic coast on Wednesday sets up a reinforcing pulse of SSW groundswell on Monday and Tuesday.

The compact characteristics of the low and associated fetch limits the size of this pulse. Expect a building trend throughout Monday, with inconsistent three to four foot sets pushing up to a well organised three to five feet across exposed breaks throughout the afternoon. This is expected to top out at four to six feet on Tuesday 30 before dropping back to three to four feet by Wednesday 31 August.

Beyond that, a new pulse of SW groundswell is likely to materialise over the weekend beginning Saturday 3 September; its origin an active storm track setting up beneath South Africa and Madagascar this weekend. At this point there’s still considerable divergence among key computer models lending uncertainty to the size and timing of this episode.

Either way, the outlook for early September is good. Key models pick up rejuvenated storm activity persisting across the southwest Indian Ocean into the end of August, setting up a series of new SW and SSW swells into the first two weeks of September.

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