Indo Swell Forecast, Thurs, 8 September 2011

8 Sep 2011 0 Share



Indonesia: Bali to Java Forecast Issued 4.30pm, Thursday, 8 September, 2011. By Ben Macartney.

Short Forecast

Friday
SSW swell 3 – 4ft+ exposed breaks. WIND: Early light winds tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Saturday
SSW swell 2 – 4ft exposed breaks, new SW groundswell increasing to an inconsistent 3 – 4ft+ during the afternoon. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Sunday:
SW groundswell 5 – 8ft exposed breaks. WIND: Light early tending ESE 15 – 25 knots.

Monday:
SW groundswell 5 – 6ft+ exposed breaks. WIND: Early light and variable tending ESE 15 – 20 knots.

Tuesday
SW groundswell 4 - 6ft exposed breaks, easing during the afternoon. WIND: Light and variable tending E/SE 15 – 25 knots.

Wednesday
SW swell 4 - 6ft exposed coasts. WIND: Early light and variable tending E/SE 15 – 20 knots.

Forecast Overview
A consistent run of SSW groundswell fluctuated around the three to six foot mark across the more exposed breaks this week; holding good size across the region on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday sees a continuation of mid to large groundswell emanating from an acute SSW direction of around 200 degrees. This will limit exposure across the more sheltered west facing coasts, with true south facing stretches receiving the bulk of the swell.

New SW groundswell arrives this weekend
Saturday marks a day of transition in primary swell as SSW groundswell fades to lower levels, only to be superseded by a new building trend in SW groundswell during the afternoon. Saturday morning should see the tail end of the SSW swell still hovering around two to four foot across exposed coasts.

Throughout the afternoon SW groundswell should become evident, with inconsistent three to four foot lines materialising across exposed breaks. The origin of the new groundswell a vigorous low that intensified within close range of the southern South African coast last Friday 3rd September. The low set up a strong gale to storm force fetch as it further intensified and tracked southeast beneath Madagascar last weekend;

BOM
Source: BOM. Once of the more intense extratropical lows of the winter set up over the southwest Indian Ocean early this week. A powerful round of SW groundswell makes landfall across Indonesian coasts this weekend.

The storm merged with a second frontal system traversing the region, forming a large, complex low that remained slow moving over the region early this week; maintaining a broad area of gale to storm force W/SW winds across the region – a vast fetch that remained well aligned with Indonesian coasts for several days.

The end result is a consistent run of SW groundswell, peaking on Sunday at six to eight foot across exposed breaks and holding solid size ranging from five to six feet plus on Monday and Tuesday. Wave heights should hang in around four to six feet on Wednesday ahead of a more substantial drop into the end of the week.

Looking further ahead, the storm track becomes far more subdued across the southern Indian Ocean over the coming days. This Friday and Saturday sees a high southeast of Madagascar and a relatively weak low approaching Western Australia. This should see a further easing trend in wave heights into Thursday 15 – levelling off around the two to three foot mark across exposed breaks by Friday 16 September.

There are some indications the low will intensify as it moves beneath Western Australia on Sunday and Monday, speculatively setting up an oblique pulse of mid range SSW groundswell, filling in during Saturday 17 ahead of the bulk of swell hitting on Sunday 18 September.

Beyond that, long range model runs pick up further storm activity across the southern Indian Ocean through mid to late next week; hinting at new pulses of SSW swell across the region from Wednesday 21 through to the weekend of Saturday 24 September.

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